North by South Research

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Research

Long-form, model-driven research on companies, markets and industries where the operating mechanics are not obvious from the financial statements alone.

All SectorsAerospaceShipping & CommoditiesSemiconductors

Published research

NBS #001AerospaceAugust 2026

Rolls-Royce Holdings plc

An excellent business at a demanding price

Rolls-Royce has been genuinely transformed, and we broadly accept the operational earnings story: roughly 69% of the Civil Aerospace margin expansion appears structural rather than attributable to contractual margin improvements. Our disagreement with the market is narrower and more specific — free cash flow conversion, and the return an investor should require for a long-duration aerospace aftermarket annuity. Against a reference price of 1,567p we carry a central fair value of c.1,050p.

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NBS #002Shipping & CommoditiesJune 2026

Dry Bulk Freight Structure

Forward curves, fleet supply and the cost of being early

A structural study of dry bulk freight formation: how orderbook, demolition economics and tonne-mile demand interact, why forward freight agreements price the way they do, and where the market's mean-reversion assumptions break down.

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NBS #003SemiconductorsApril 2026

Advanced Packaging Economics

Where value migrates when transistor scaling slows

As lithographic scaling delivers diminishing returns, an increasing share of system-level performance is created in packaging and interconnect. This note examines where the associated economic rent accumulates and which parts of the supply chain can defend it.

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